E-Truck Revolution in China: 25% Market Share in First Half of 2025

Main Points

• Battery-electric heavy trucks (>14t GVW) are rapidly expanding their market share in China, reports Reuters, citing new figures from SCI. They are following in the footsteps of electric cars, which already account for over 50% of new sales in China.
• Fleet Size
  • According to the figures, the number of so-called new energy trucks (BEV, PHEV, FCEV) rose by 175% to 76,100 vehicles in the first half of 2025. This corresponds to a market share of 25%. The figure largely corresponds to the category of BEV trucks, as neither H2/FCEV trucks nor PHEV trucks play a major role.
  • Nevertheless, LNG trucks are still ahead of electric trucks, with approximately 92,000 truck sales in the first half of 2025, according to SCI Consulting.
  • Last year, heavy trucks with diesel powertrains still accounted for 60% of the market, while LNG trucks accounted for just under 30%. E-trucks had a market share of 13%.
    • Note: The IEA reported a figure of 76,000 electric trucks (4.4% market share) for 2024. However, the IEA’s definition is broader and includes vehicles with a GVW of 3.5 tonnes or more, i.e. not just heavy trucks.
• Costs
  • Data from GL Consulting show that electric trucks can offer trucking companies a slight financial advantage over diesel and LNG trucks. Higher purchase costs are more than offset by lower fuel and electricity costs. The chart below takes into account purchase subsidies of up to 95,000 yuan (13,300 USD).
  • However, the prices of LNG (liquefied natural gas) and diesel fluctuate, meaning that the ranking can change quickly.
  • For example, the boom in LNG propulsion for trucks quickly levelled off when gas prices in China rose. Sales of LNG trucks therefore fell by 15% compared to the first half of 2024.

Source: Reuters

• Outlook and impact on oil demand
  • The second-largest e-truck manufacturer, Sany, expects electric drives to rapidly gain acceptance in heavy trucks. In two to three years, the market share could already be 70-80% of new sales, according to company representatives quoted by Reuters.
  • This will significantly reduce Chinese demand for diesel over the next few years. Two-thirds of China´s diesel supply is consumed by the transport sector with Chinese trucks currently combusting about 3 mb/d (million barrels per day). That is almost 3 percent of global oil demand.
  • At the moment, it looks as if the rapid electrification of cars and trucks, plus the large fleet of LNG trucks, will lead to ‘peak oil demand’ in China as early as this year or next.

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