18 January 2019

Electric Car Sales 2018: China storms ahead RoW. Global EV market share at 2.1 percent

By |2019-01-18T17:36:24+00:00Friday, 18 January 2019|Categories: China, electric vehicles, internal combustion vehicles (ICV)|0 Comments

Electric car sales climbed by 65 per cent in 2018 and reached the 2.0 million unit mark, as preliminary numbers suggest.

This corresponds to a 2.1 per cent share of global car sales.

China´s EV market share climbed to 53 per cent, i.e. the country sold more EVs than the rest of the world.

Read more on this topic and see country specific numbers and charts  in the next edition of our Global Energy Briefing (German and English version available for subscribers)

Source of charts: Global Energy Briefing No 171 (forthcoming) 

10 January 2019

Peak Car in 2018?

By |2019-01-11T20:41:26+00:00Thursday, 10 January 2019|Categories: China, electric vehicles|Tags: |0 Comments

What is the state of the Chinese economy? Growth estimates for 2018 differ widely between the official 6.x percent, down to less than 2 per cent.

A strong indicator of weakness is the official car sales number for 2018. It declined, for the first time since 1990, by almost 6 per cent to 22.7 million units. December numbers were even 19 percent below last year, as Bloomberg (CAAM) reported.

The market of combustion engine cars (i.e. gasoline or diesel driven) suffered even more because the sales numbers of electric cars rose, thanks to generous government and municipal support. The fleet of new battery-electric cars (BEV) and plug-in hybrids grew strongly to over 1 million units in 2018 and may reach 1.6 million units in 2019 as strict quotas come into force.

But problems are not confined to the Chinese market. The headline-grabbing diesel car scandals may mask a global sales crisis of gasoline/diesel cars, as a recent study by RBC Capital suggests (see image above). Main reasons are urban smog policies, quickly rising electric car sales and new mobility services such as car-sharing or Uber-like products.

As for China, early estimates indicate a stagnation or another decline of car sales in 2019, unless car ownership restrictions in major cities will be relaxed.

As for global markets, RBC Capital expects a decline by 0.6 million to 94.6 million car sales (all drive types) in 2018 and another drop by 0.4 million in 2019. That is a clear break from the trend in the years before. Sales number for 2013 amounted to just 84.7, followed by steady growth until 2017.

As electric car sales (BEV, PHEV) are expected to grow by at least 0.7 million in 2018 und more than 1.0 million in 2019 there is little hope that combustion engine car sales will resume the growth path any time soon. Only in hindsight we will know if 2018 was the “peak combustion engine car” year.

Source of the chart shown above: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-19/the-global-auto-industry-is-likely-in-first-recession-since-2009

Find more on the latest electric car trends in the next edition of our Global Energy Briefing (German/English version available)

10 December 2018

Global Energy Briefing No 170: Global Energy Markets in December (English Edition)

By |2019-01-08T16:34:31+00:00Monday, 10 December 2018|Categories: coal markets, electric vehicles, gas price, international gas markets, Japan, oil markets|0 Comments

The current edition of our newsletter Global Energy Briefing (No.170) reports on prices, trends and events on the international energy markets. Topics are among others:

(1) Oil price outlook after OPEC/Russia-Decision

(2) US gas prices surge by more than 40 per cent; but sink  in negative territory in Permian Basin

(3) EU/Asian gas markets – relaxed winter outlook

(4) Hard coal markets: Prices down; weak 2019 outlook

(5) Power markets: Japan – back to nuclear

(6) Electric car markets: strong US numbers; China new all-time high in October; EV market share 7 per cent by December?

19 October 2018

Global Energy Briefing No 168: International Energy Markets in October (English Edition)

By |2018-11-23T14:50:05+00:00Friday, 19 October 2018|Categories: coal markets, electric vehicles, gas price, investment trends, oil price, renewables|0 Comments

The current edition of our Global Energy Briefing (No.168) reports on prices, trends and events on the international energy markets. Topics of this issue are among others:
Oil price outlook – Iranian sanctions could fizzle out, weak oil price expected. Gas prices – relaxed winter outlook in Europe and Far East, China already supplied with LNG. Coal power generation unexpectedly attractive due to cheap blends; Glencore/Tohoku agreement. Emission prices (ETS) – stabilization after profit takin. Electric cars: Steep rise in USA; stagnation in Germany. Feature: Global investments in renewables in third quarter: shrinkage of 6%, sideways trend now in seventh year.